THE "LIKE" FACTOR – AT 8:58 A.M. ET:  Let's face it.  We want to like our president.  We don't always get the chance, but we really do.  So the likability factor is regularly tested by pollsters.  Here are the latest results on the GOP side, via Andrew Malcolm at IBD: 

The winner of tonight's Republican debate in Colorado is TBD.

But already we know who is the most likable candidate. And who is enjoying a surge in polls to become the new front-runner. And -- this is not brain surgery, people -- they are one in the same: Ben Carson.

Gallup has released a new survey of more than 3,100 Republican-thinking adults. Its number-crunchers calculated the favorables and unfavorables of nine of the top GOP candidates and subtracted the bad from the good to come up with a Net Favorable rating.

Debates have played a significant role shaping the Republican field this cycle. Going into tonight's word-fest, Carson had the biggest plus-side, 68, and the smallest negative side, 8, for a Net Favorable of 60.

His nearest competitors were Marco Rubio (+40 based on 55 positive and 15 negative)) and Carly Fiorina (+33 based on 46 positive and 13 negative).

Who do you think has the worst Net Favorables? Nope, not Trump, although he has the worst negatives. It's Ohio's John Kasich with 26 positive and 18 negative for a Net Favorable of eight.
Trump came in only sixth place. He had the second largest favorables at 58. But he also had the largest unfavorables of 34 for a Net Favorable of only 24. That's ahead of Jeb Bush's Net Favorable of 19 (+50 and -31) and Chris Christie's 10 (+40 and -30).

COMMENT:  Carly's numbers contradict her nosedive in the polls, and I can't explain that.  As noted in our first post this morning, John Kasich gets good press reviews and is a favorite of the pros, but clearly hasn't made a public impact. 

As we always stress, a poll is just a snapshot in time.  Polls differ, and the same polling company may come up with different results even a week from now.  Still, it's hard to argue with Ben Carson's rise.  People just like him.  Do they like his policies, his pronouncements?  I'm not sure of that at all.  If he continues his rise, scrutiny will follow, and his statements will be more carefully examined.

October 28, 2015